Simply, the Fed is dependent on “everyone acting rationally.” history, they are attempting to navigate the risks built up in the system. After more than 12-years of the most unprecedented monetary policy program in U.S. The Fed is highly dependent on this assumption. In other words, all players will act rationally, and no one will push “the big red button.” The “stability/instability paradox” assumes all players are rational and implies avoidance of destruction. As noted above, with the entirety of the financial ecosystem more heavily levered than ever, the “instability of stability” is the most significant risk. Interestingly, the Fed is dependent on market participants believing in this idea. Moreover, the “stability” provided by the Fed’s interventions bolstered investors’ FOMO. Each crack in the “financial foundation” got met with monetary injections. Over the last decade, the Fed’s monetary policy trained investors to take on increasing levels of risk. If interest rates rise, the Fed tightens monetary policy, or the economic recovery falters, the seeds for the next financial crisis have already gotten sown. Our research has documented that the world has never been less prepared or less equipped to deal with a possible outbreak of inflation or pull-back in Federal largess. Whether we are right or wrong on the causality, the facts are intimidating in our view. We believe the mix of record debt and record equity valuations is likely a side effect of real rates approaching lows last seen in 1973. Since 2007, a big part of America’s debt crisis has moved from the financial sector to non-financial stocks with too much debt. Currently, the world is awash in financial alchemy. “We don’t understand why others are not alarmed by an ‘anything goes’ attitude towards record levels of leverage where interest expense cannot be paid for by profits. Unfortunately, as Kailash Concepts explains, debt itself is the problem. The obvious problem is what happens if interest rates rise to a level where they cannot refinance their debt. Total EV of Firms with EBIT Less than Interest Expense Chart courtesy of Kailash Concepts
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